Study Paints Dire Picture of Warmer Northeast

Northeast climate change mapThat’s the title of an article in this morning’s NY Times about the release of a new report by the Union of Concerned Sciences. According to the Times:

The impact on New York State’s $3.5 billion-a-year agricultural industry could be devastating, said David W. Wolfe, a professor of plant ecology in the Department of Horticulture at Cornell University and one of the scientists who contributed to the report.

While higher temperatures might at first be welcomed because they would extend the growing season, they would bring new plant and insect pests like the corn earworm that could ravage crops.

Unless emissions are reduced, the scientists warned, Long Island lobsters would disappear or move to cooler waters up north. Without a hard frost to set buds, New York apple trees would not produce as much fruit as before. Under stress from invasive species, maple, beech and birch trees could disappear from certain regions of the state, including the Adirondacks.

And since it would often be hotter than dairy cows like, milk production could decline by 15 percent or more in late summer months.

[Full disclosure: David’s office is just down the hall from me. He’s a smart guy, serious scientist and a talented writer.]

I find this graphic representation (above) from the report the most powerful representation of what we’re in for if we don’t respond. It’s like all of us here in Upstate New York are going to be gardening like Pam — or at least our kids will.

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4 thoughts on “Study Paints Dire Picture of Warmer Northeast”

  1. So sad that the Time just picked up on this “new report”. I wrote about this when UCS issued the first set of documents drawn from the same material … last October.

    I haven’t read what they just issued. I’m guessing they were concerned that noone noticed it the first time, so they felt they had to come out with a “new report” …

  2. Xris: I talked with David this morning. You’re right that the climate forecasts in this report are largely unchanged from previous reports. What’s new is the impacts. In previous reports, they said ‘It’s going to get warmer and that might mean thus and such will happen.” Now they have research behind them so they are able to speak with more confidence about how warming will affect, in the case of David’s area of expertise, agriculture.

  3. Ellis:

    I always read these dire predictions with curiosity and somewhat hesitant belief as no one can really predict what will happen in the future. Not that we shouldn’t heed the warnings and change our ways but how, actually? This country runs on fuel and until an alternate energy source becomes main stream it is difficult to see how the large changes necessary will have effect. You have Florida, the Sunshine State , with no solar panels anywhere in sight. The same goes for Las Vegas which is the silliest place on earth to build a major city and with unprecedented growth in that area and with a light beam on the Luxor which can be seen from outer space! Once again, no solar panels in sight. I am truly concerned but drive for a living and the smaller, gas efficient hybrids are just that, small. I will, of course, be looking for a more gas efficient vehicle the next time I buy one but will there be more options? I don’t see GMC or Ford responding to this need with their larger vehicles. I just got a notice from GMC that their Yukon is now more gas efficient with 15 mpg city. That is just outrageous and out of touch! And then, you have politicians who preach conservation but then live a lifestyle of excess. I would check their stocks to see just where they are putting their money. I am unconvinced that buying ‘carbon credits’ does anything but make these excessive people feel better about what they are using. To say just stop doesn’t work within the framework of our lifestyle. Changes are necessary, that is clear. Thanks for the article but now I just feel more guilty about not living in a shack with no power.

  4. Well, if I’m still around and you New Yorkers are still gardening, I’d be delighted to share some of my garden (and limited southern gardening wisdom) with you. But by that point, South Carolina will be hanging out in the Keys, and I might be living on a sailboat instead of an Airstream – and downing alot of rum drinks. So, my suggestion would be to just skip South Carolina and come on down to the islands for a visit. Hopefully by then both my Airstream and sailboat will be retrofitted for solar. 🙂

    I’m in Virginia typing this, with my father’s keyboard that drives me nuts – but Layanee’s comment makes me want to…leave a comment. I’ll try to remember and come back.

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